Every returned cash on delivery order costs you more than a lost sale. You paid for the ad, packed the order, paid the courier to take it out, and sometimes paid again to bring it back. Then the product sits in a warehouse while your dashboard still counts it as a win.
In a market where about 45% of e-commerce runs on cash on delivery, according to P&S Intelligence, you cannot simply wish this problem away. We looked for a reliable public figure for the average return rate in Egypt and did not find one we would trust. The numbers that circulate are mostly vendor estimates. That is not a big loss, because the number that matters is yours, split by product, campaign and governorate.
This guide shows how to find where your orders fail, and what to change at each stage.
First, separate the three problems
Stores often call everything "returns", but three different problems sit under that word, and each has a different fix.
Stage | What happens | Usual place to look |
|---|---|---|
Not confirmed | The customer never answers, or cancels on the call | Ads, offer, speed of follow-up |
Failed delivery | The customer confirmed, then refused or missed the courier | Delivery time, communication, trust |
Returned after delivery | The customer received the product and sent it back | Product, photos, description, sizing |
If most of your losses come before confirmation, a better courier will not help. If customers accept the parcel and then send it back, your order confirmation script is not the issue. Measure before you fix anything.
Measure the real cost of a failed order
Take one month of orders and record:
Orders placed
Orders confirmed
Orders delivered and paid
Orders returned after delivery
Ad spend
Outbound and return shipping costs
Now split those figures by campaign, product, governorate and courier. This is the step most stores skip, and it is usually the most valuable. You may find that one product, one campaign or one region is causing a large share of the damage.
Here is an illustrative example. Suppose you place 100 orders at an ad cost of EGP 80 each, and 64 are delivered. Your ad cost per delivered order is EGP 125, not EGP 80. If the 36 orders that were never delivered include 16 that shipped and failed, and each one costs EGP 40 in shipping, that adds EGP 640. Spread over 64 delivered orders, it is another EGP 10 per order. So your true acquisition cost is EGP 135.
Stage 1: Reduce the orders that never get confirmed
Check what your ads promise
If the ad says one thing and the product page says another, people cancel. Make sure the price, the offer and the delivery terms match across the ad, the page and the confirmation call. Also look at the ads themselves. An ad built only on curiosity or a large discount can bring many people who were never serious.
Show the full price early
A customer who discovers a delivery fee on the phone has a reason to cancel. Show the final price and delivery fee on the product page and before checkout.
Confirm quickly
Call or message soon after the order, while the customer still remembers what they bought. A delay of a day gives them time to change their mind or to buy from someone else. Set a target for how fast your team responds, then track it.
Use a confirmation script that helps
The call should not sound like an interrogation. A simple script works:
Greet the customer, and name the product they ordered.
Repeat the total price, including delivery.
Confirm the full address, a landmark and a second phone number if possible.
Say when to expect the courier.
Ask if there is a better time for delivery.
Use WhatsApp alongside the call. A written order summary gives the customer something to check and reduces misunderstandings.
Stage 2: Reduce failed deliveries
Shorten the time to the door
The longer an order waits, the more likely the customer is to change their mind, buy elsewhere or no longer have the cash ready. Test different couriers by governorate instead of using one for the whole country, because a courier that performs well in Cairo may not do the same elsewhere.
Keep the customer informed
Send a WhatsApp message on the day the order ships and on the delivery day. Include the courier's expected timing and a number to contact. Customers who know the parcel is coming are easier to reach at the door.
Make paying in advance worth it
InstaPay had more than 11.5 million registered users by December 2024, according to the Central Bank of Egypt via Business Today Egypt, so prepayment is no longer limited to card holders. Offer a clear reason to prepay, such as a small discount, free delivery or a small gift. Test this on higher-value orders first. A prepaid order cannot be refused for lack of cash, although you should still expect some customers to choose cash.
Consider a partial deposit for risky orders
For expensive items or regions with weak delivery results, a small deposit can filter out people who are not serious. Be careful, because this will also reduce the number of orders. Test it on a segment, and compare profit rather than order count.
Do not block customers blindly
Keep a record of phone numbers that repeatedly refuse deliveries, and review them before shipping. Treat this as a reason to confirm more carefully, not an automatic ban, because a customer may have had one bad experience with a courier.
Stage 3: Reduce returns after delivery
When customers accept the product and then send it back, the cause is usually a gap between what they expected and what arrived.
Show real photos and video. Include size, texture and how it looks when used.
Write exact details. Dimensions, materials, ingredients and what comes in the box.
Offer a clear size guide. For clothing and shoes, this can be one of your most important pages.
Check quality before packing. A damaged product returns no matter how good your marketing is.
Read the reason for every return. Group them each month, then fix the top reason first.
Decide on exchanges. Offering an exchange can save a sale that a refund would lose.
Fix your ads using delivery data
This is where returns become a marketing issue. Ad platforms learn from the data you send them. If you only report purchases, the system will look for more people likely to place an order, even if they rarely accept delivery.
Compare campaigns by delivered orders each week. Cut budget from campaigns with poor delivery, even when their cost per purchase looks good.
Exclude or reduce weak regions. If a governorate consistently fails, adjust targeting or the offer there.
Test sending better signals. Where your setup allows, send confirmed or delivered orders back to the ad platform through its server-side tools, so that the system can learn from better outcomes. Ask your developer or agency to check what your store supports.
If you are unsure how these numbers affect your target, read our guide to a good ROAS for your store, and see the wider plan in how to market an online store in Egypt.
A warning about returns as a target Do not chase the lowest return rate on its own. Stopping all discounts or adding a large deposit can cut returns and also cut profit. The goal is more profit per order you pay to acquire, so always compare options on that number. |
A one-month action plan
Week 1: Build the sheet, and split the last 30 days by product, campaign, governorate and courier.
Week 2: Fix the largest single leak you found, whether that is confirmation speed, a weak product or a poor courier.
Week 3: Add WhatsApp order summaries and shipping updates, and test one prepaid incentive.
Week 4: Cut or adjust the worst campaigns based on delivered orders, then compare profit against the previous month.
Where marketing and operations meet
Returns are rarely solved by one team. The ad buyer controls who sees the offer, the sales team controls confirmation, and operations controls delivery. Each one can look fine in its own report while the store loses money between them.
If you want someone to connect those numbers, our e-commerce marketing services are built around delivered orders and profit rather than platform purchases. You can also start on your own this week with one sheet and one honest month of data.
Launching a project this quarter?
30 minutes, no cost. We’ll show you where your cost per lead is leaking.
Sources
P&S Intelligence, Egypt e-commerce market: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/egypt-e-commerce-market
Business Today Egypt, InstaPay figures from the Central Bank of Egypt: https://www.businesstodayegypt.com/amp/1/5631/Egypt-s-central-bank-expects-transactions-via-InstaPay-to-reach
Last reviewed November 2026.




